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In the labour market, the discrepancy between the educational level of workers and the job they perform (‘educational mismatch’) can change over time. In a recent study, DSS researcher Lina Tobler and her colleague Julia Leesch from the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research analysed how such macro-level time trends come about.
To answer this research question, they considered mismatch changes in the US between 2003 and 2011 and found that overeducation rose during this period, thereby corroborating previous research on the topic. Moreover, they found that undereducation declined over the same time span.
However, how can such trends be explained? The two researchers distinguish between two theoretical mechanisms. First, educational mismatch may change due to changes in the supply of and demand for workers with a certain educational level. For example, educational expansion leads to more and more people being highly educated. If the demand for highly educated workers does not align with the increasing supply, this could lead to discrepancies. Mismatch may, therefore, be driven by structural factors (‘opportunity structure’). 
Second, the allocation of workers to jobs (the so-called ‘matching patterns’) may simultaneously change over time, for example because technological advancements provide new opportunities to find jobs as well as suitable candidates online. Changes in mobility, for example due to infrastructural advancements may also affect how workers are allocated to jobs. Moreover, any changes in preferences for both workers and employers may play a role when it comes to changes in the allocation process.
Using a decomposition method, the two researchers were able to separate and analyse the two theoretical mechanisms. Their results indicate that the observed rises in overeducation are mainly driven by changes in supply and demand (opportunity structure) rather than changes in the worker-to-job allocation (matching patterns). This does not only have implications for education and labour market policy but also offers potential for further research. Future research may look at different time periods or other countries. Referring to related scientific literature, Tobler and Leesch argue that the drivers of mismatch may be related to country-specific conditions, such as the education and training system or employment protection legislation. Therefore, future research may analyse whether the findings for the US labour market also apply for Germany.